By Heinz Wanner, Martin Grosjean, Regine Röthlisberger, Elena Xoplaki

Heinz Wanner is the pinnacle of the weather study staff and Director of the NCRR administration Center.

Martin Grosjean is

Regine Rothlisberger is a technological know-how Officer with the NCCR weather administration Center.

Elena Xoplaki is a technological know-how Officer with the NCCR weather administration Center.

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Clim Dyn 26:387–405 Pfister C (1992) Monthly temperature and precipitation in Central Europe 1525–1979: Quantifying documentary evidence on weather and its effects. D. 1500. Routledge, London Pope DV, Gallani M, Rowntree R, Stratton A (2000) The Impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model HadAM3. Clim Dyn 16:123–146 Raible CC, Luksch U, Fraedrich K (2004) Precipitation and Northern Hemisphere Regimes. 001 Raible CC, Luksch U, Fraedrich K, Voss R (2001) North Atlantic decadal regimes in a coupled GCM simulation.

Second a somewhat more simplified climate model with less detailed physical representations and spatial resolution that is concomitantly much more computationally efficient can be deployed in an ensemble mode (cf. 3). However, one should be aware that the error and uncertainty estimates are obtained in the self-contained model world. This prompts the caveat “Can we estimate the uncertainty in our uncertainty estimates? ” (Smith 2002). Finally note that quantitative information on the uncertainty can be crucial for many end-user applications.

A PDF of climate sensitivity was obtained from ∼106 random combinations of values for the model parameters. 4 ◦ C. 5 ◦ C. A caveat is that the latter range was not constrained by observations and hence reflects simply the a` priori PDFs. Allen et al. (2000) and Stott and Kettleborough (2002) evaluated the uncertainty in predictions of future warming by using an empirical linear relationship between the 20th century and the mid-21st century warming in models with a hierarchy of complexities. The mid-21st century warming is scaled based on the simulated 20th century warming so that the latter becomes consistent with observations.

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