By Leslie Masonson

Shell-shocked traders have misplaced persistence with the conventional buy-and-hold method of making an investment. All approximately marketplace Timing palms traders with uncomplicated, easy-to-use timing options that they could use to go into emerging markets, go out (or move brief) falling markets, and make constant gains in either industry environments whereas preserving opposed to catastrophic losses.

Compelling arguments show the prevalence of simple timing over buy-and-hold, whereas step by step directions convey how easy timing may be. particular funding cars are urged that healthy good into so much timing ideas. traders who are looking to time the marketplace utilizing their very own concepts are supplied with details on on hand software program and websites. and people traders who're searching for advisors to assist them are supplied with independent score prone to aid them choose the consultant that's most sensible for them.

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Sample text

Neither the Standard & Poor’s 500 nor the Nasdaq Composite Index has historical data that far back in time. Therefore, the DJIA was used to gather data. Market academicians define a bear market or bull market as a decline or rise of 20 percent, respectively, in a major market index (such as the DJIA, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite Index). Table 1-4 adheres to this classification, but Table 1-5 has six time frames in which the change in percentage was less than 20 percent. Since Hays provided the data, I did not adjust it.

Note that the recovery time does not take into account dividends. L. Masonson adjusted 2000 data through October 2002 to be up-to-date. Note that it took more time to recover from every bear market there has ever been than the duration of the actual bear market itself. This last bear market was the third longest in duration since the Great Depression and the worst since 1938. Investors should realize that these long bear markets will occur again in the future, so a strategy to protect principal must be in place in advance to avoid this ravaging of principal.

Bear markets drops are much faster than bull market rises. 28 points resulting in a gain of 353 percent. In stark contrast from the end of June through the end of July 2002, the S&P 500 fell 266 points, or a loss of approximately 23 percent of that entire gain over a period of just two months. That’s volatility in a bear market! The third quarter of 2002 produced the worst quarterly results in 15 years, with the major averages down 18 percent or more. Bear Market Recoveries Table 1-6 provides data on how long it takes to break even, assuming a buy-and-hold approach with the S&P 500 Index, once a bear market has reached bottom.

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