By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Environment and Resources Commission on Geosciences, Panel on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change

Panel on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and weather switch, surroundings and assets fee on Geosciences, department in the world and existence stories, nationwide examine Council

This publication recommends the initiation of an "integrated" examine application to review the position of aerosols within the anticipated international weather switch. present realizing recommend that, even now, aerosols, basically from anthropogenic resources, should be decreasing the speed of warming because of greenhouse gasoline emissions. as well as particular learn concepts, this ebook forcefully argues for 2 types of learn software integration: integration of the person laboratory, box, and theoretical examine actions and an built-in administration constitution that consists of all the involved federal companies.

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In particular, the Pinatubo ''experiment" inadequately tests the role of the oceans in climate change and neglects land-sea contrasts, characteristic of forcing from tropospheric aerosols. In many respects, the episodic stratospheric aerosol forcing problem is far less complicated than the tropospheric aerosol climate problem. Nonetheless, the relatively better understanding of stratospheric aerosol climate effects does provide an extremely useful reference with which to compare and contrast forcings and responses from secular increases in tropospheric aerosols, since the optical depths in the two cases are comparable, albeit operating on different time and space scales.

1 W m-2 for soot based on Haywood and Shine (1995). 5 W m-2 may have discernible climatic effects if it is regionally inhomogeneous. A more complete summary of direct forcing estimates is provided later in this report. 6. It is currently estimated that about half of the background optical depth is the result of anthropogenic sulfate and organic aerosols (Andreae, 1995). 5°C global-mean cooling can be estimated to be caused by anthropogenic aerosol. Indirect Forcing To quantify indirect climatic effects of aerosols requires relating increased mass concentrations of aerosol from anthropogenic sources to increased number concentrations of aerosol particles, to increased numbers of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), to increased numbers of cloud droplets, to altered cloud radiative properties or lifetime.

Role of organics in modifying cloud droplet lifetime is an open question i. Fundamental theory of light absorption by aerosols is well established ii. Radiative transfer theory for absorption is also well established iii. Data on presence or amount of light-absorbing particles (especially elemental and black carbon) are sparse; in situ methods are available iv. Connection of amount of absorbing aerosol to source field is possible in principle but remains to be done i. i-iii ii. No estimates yet available for fraction of soil dust that is anthropogenic iii.

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